Some experts in the UK are estimating that 17% of shopping was done on-line this Xmas, beating all predictions. It’s another sign of how fast things are changing for brands and I was fascinated therefore to read an article in the Times Magazine today, looking at predictions from leading commentators for the year ahead. Supercrunching grabbed my attention …
Ian Ayers has written a book called Super Crunchers (named using Google Ad-words to test various titles to his book, to identify the one that generated the most clicks).
Supercrunching is the analysis of huge quantities of data to make predictions about the real world. He claims it is the future of marketing – identifying what consumers will buy next, based on masses of collected data on past behaviour, external influences and probabilities etc. He says it will replace intuition in many situations.
Data is being collected from us at every source today– search terms, shopping purchases, location records etc. Piecing these together does give marketers the opportunity to create fantastic predictive and targeting models. The issue historically has been one of cost – it’s simply been too expensive to adopt this approach across a wide range of decisions. As these costs reduce, as they will, Supercrunching will clearly become an increasingly important component of future advocacy strategies.
I also liked The Times article on the Terabyte.
Fewer than ten years ago a matchbox sized 64 Megabyte MP3 player held a CD’s worth of music. The current Ipod has 160,000 Megabytes (160 Gigabytes). Even the Gigabyte is close to obsolescence according to one commentator – as we move towards the Terabyte (1 million Megabytes). Soon gadgets will contain tens or even hundreds of Terabytes. They will be pre-loaded with masses of information to reduce the reliance on slow Internet connections and we will have the opportunity to store everything we have ever produced, seen or heard. It’s yet another new space for brands to think about.
The future it seems is data!
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